Mismatch in Chrome Ore Supply and Demand Prices, Intensified Market Game [SMM Analysis]

Published: Mar 14, 2025 16:51

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[SMM Analysis: Chrome Ore Supply and Demand Price Mismatch, Market Game Intensifies] As of March 14, the average price of South African 40-42% chrome concentrate ore was 53 yuan/mtu, an increase of 6 yuan/mtu MoM. As of March 14, the total chrome ore inventory at national ports reached 3.1454 million mt, an increase of 18,200 mt MoM, with a growth rate of 0.58%...

As of March 14, the average price of South African 40-42% chrome concentrate was 53 yuan per mtu, up 6 yuan per mtu compared to the same period last month. As of March 14, the total chrome ore inventory at ports nationwide reached 3.1454 million mt, an increase of 18,200 mt compared to the same period last month, with a growth rate of 0.58%. The inventory at Tianjin Port was 2.6204 million mt.

Although the cost of chrome ore arrivals decreased this month, the overseas market futures prices for chrome ore rose continuously after the Chinese New Year holiday, with a cumulative increase of nearly $60/mt within three weeks. Meanwhile, the retail price of ferrochrome also showed an upward trend after the holiday, and the raw material procurement demand from ferrochrome producers increased accordingly, leading to a simultaneous rise in port spot prices for chrome ore.

According to SMM data, the cumulative port departures of bulk carriers at global main ports in February were approximately 1.82 million mt, while the cumulative departures as of March 13 were about 1.26 million mt. In February, the port arrivals at Tianjin Port were approximately 1.33 million mt, and the March arrivals are expected to be around 1.18 million mt.

Despite the rapid increase in chrome ore prices earlier, the operating rate of ferrochrome producers remained low, resulting in weak demand for chrome ore. At the same time, overseas shipments of chrome ore remained at a high level, with no reduction in supply, leading to a significant increase in chrome ore port inventory.

In March, the tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome from mainstream stainless steel mills continued to stay at low levels, and the cost inversion phenomenon for ferrochrome producers persisted. However, due to the substantial rise in chrome ore prices earlier, ferrochrome producers faced difficulties in accepting high-priced raw materials. Additionally, the recent arrivals of low-priced chrome ore exerted significant pressure on domestic chrome ore prices.

Nevertheless, the planned production of stainless steel remained high, and the market held strong expectations for an increase in steel tender prices. Coupled with the high concentration of chrome ore supply, industry participants demonstrated strong resilience in standing firm on quotes. In the short term, the market is expected to remain in a stalemate.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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